The Hajj is entering a long stretch of milder weather. Astronomers say the 2025 pilgrimage was the last to fall in the peak of summer, and that for roughly the next 25 years the rites will gradually move into spring and then winter, bringing cooler temperatures and safer conditions for millions of pilgrims.
The shift is not a matter of policy but of the calendar itself. Because the Islamic year is shorter than the Gregorian year, the timing of the Hajj drifts steadily through the seasons, and it is now moving away from the fierce heat that marked pilgrimages over the past several years.
Why the timing is changing
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the board of the Emirates Astronomy Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, explained that the Hijri year runs to about 354 days, some 10 to 11 days shorter than the solar Gregorian year. As a result, the dates of the Hajj advance by that margin each year, cycling through summer, autumn, winter and spring over time.
A complete climatic cycle, returning the Hajj to the same season, takes roughly 32 to 33 years. Al Jarwan noted that the seasons from 2018 to 2025 coincided with some of the hottest and driest periods on the Arabian Peninsula, as the pilgrimage fell in May, June, July and August. The 2026 season already sits at the tail end of spring, marking the start of the transition.
What pilgrims can expect
According to Al Jarwan, the Hajj will fall fully in spring from 2029, around April, and will then move into winter from 2034, coinciding with February and remaining in the cooler months until roughly 2040. Peak summer heat is not expected to overlap with the Hajj again until after around 2050.
Average summer temperatures in Makkah typically range from about 43 degrees Celsius in the daytime to 28 degrees at night, with the warmth of summer nights rarely easing below 28 to 30 degrees. Al Jarwan added that reports from the Saudi National Center for Meteorology confirm the pilgrimage will no longer coincide with the hottest months after this year, with future seasons expected to see milder spring weather followed by colder and occasionally rainy winter conditions, reminiscent of Hajj seasons in the 1990s.
Safer conditions ahead
The practical benefits are significant. Lower temperatures reduce the danger of heatstroke and heat exhaustion, which have been a persistent concern during summer pilgrimages. Milder weather is expected to improve the experience for elderly pilgrims and those with health conditions, allow easier movement between the holy sites of Mina, Arafat and Muzdalifah, and ease pressure on healthcare and service infrastructure.
For pilgrims planning ahead, the change offers welcome relief, though it will unfold gradually. Those performing Hajj in the next few seasons should still prepare for warm conditions and follow all health and safety guidance, while looking forward to steadily cooler pilgrimages in the years to come. The transition is a reminder of how the rhythm of the Islamic calendar continues to shape the experience of one of the world's largest annual gatherings.