Saudi Arabia's Hajj season has begun a long-awaited shift out of the peak summer heat, moving into milder spring and winter conditions that are expected to last for roughly the next quarter century. Astronomers and meteorologists say the 2025 pilgrimage was the final Hajj to fall in the height of summer, with cooler seasons now forecast until around 2050. For the millions who travel to Makkah each year, the change promises safer conditions and a more comfortable pilgrimage.
Why the Hajj dates keep moving
The shift is driven by the Islamic lunar calendar, which governs the timing of Hajj. The Hijri year runs about 354 days, some 10 to 11 days shorter than the Gregorian solar year. As a result, the dates of the Hajj rituals move earlier by roughly 11 days each year, gradually drifting through all four seasons.
According to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society, a full climatic cycle takes about 32 to 33 years for the Hajj to return to the same season. He noted that the pilgrimages from 2018 to 2025 coincided with some of the hottest and driest summers on the Arabian Peninsula, falling in May, June, July and August.
What pilgrims can expect from now on
The 2026 season coincided with the final days of spring, marking the start of the transition. Al Jarwan said the Hajj will fall fully within spring from 2029, landing in April, before moving into winter conditions around February from 2034. The pilgrimage is expected to remain in cooler winter weather until roughly 2040, before the long cycle eventually carries it back toward summer after 2050.
Saudi Arabia's National Center for Meteorology has confirmed that the Hajj will no longer coincide with peak summer months after 2025. Future seasons are expected to bring milder spring weather followed by colder, occasionally rainy winters, similar to Hajj seasons of the 1990s.
Cooler weather means safer conditions
The health implications are significant. Average summer highs in Makkah reach around 43C during the day and rarely drop below 28C at night. Those conditions have historically raised the risk of heatstroke and heat exhaustion, especially among elderly pilgrims and those with existing medical conditions.
Al Jarwan said the move into cooler seasons should reduce heat-related risks, ease pressure on healthcare and service infrastructure, and give pilgrims greater flexibility when moving between the holy sites of Mina, Arafat and Muzdalifah. Milder temperatures are also expected to make the physically demanding rituals easier to perform, particularly for older pilgrims.
Saudi authorities have invested heavily in cooling technology in recent years, including large chilled-water systems at the Grand Mosque and shaded, misted areas at Arafat. As the seasons cool naturally, that infrastructure is expected to provide an added margin of safety rather than the last line of defense against extreme heat.
Practical tips for pilgrims
Even with cooler seasons ahead, pilgrims should not assume the weather will always be mild. Spring days in Makkah can still be warm, and winter seasons in later years may bring rain and cooler nights. It is wise to pack for a range of conditions, including a light waterproof layer for the years when Hajj falls in winter.
Pilgrims should stay hydrated, use an umbrella for shade during daylight rituals, and follow the official guidance issued each season by Saudi authorities. Those with health conditions should still complete their medical checks and carry any necessary medication, regardless of the improving climate.